{"id":10531,"date":"2017-03-03T01:33:33","date_gmt":"2017-03-03T06:33:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.shorebeat.com\/brick\/?p=10531"},"modified":"2017-03-03T01:38:05","modified_gmt":"2017-03-03T06:38:05","slug":"birth-rate-declines-school-population-falls-in-brick-whats-next","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/shorebeat.com\/brick\/2017\/03\/birth-rate-declines-school-population-falls-in-brick-whats-next\/","title":{"rendered":"Brick’s Birth Rate Declines, School Population Falls: What’s Next?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"School<\/a>

School Bus (File Photo\/ Bill McChesney\/Flickr)<\/p><\/div>\n

A demographic study commissioned by the Brick Township school district showed the township\u2019s birth rate declined by nearly a quarter in a matter of 12 years, resulting in a declining school population.<\/p>\n

The study, authored by Dr. Richard S. Grip and obtained by Shorebeat through a request under the Open Public Records Act, shows the Brick\u2019s birth rate declined 21.4 percent between 2001 and 2012, with more seniors graduating high school than kindergarteners entering the system, ultimately leading to declines in school population. In the 2015-16 school year, for example, 188 more students graduated high school than entered kindergarten.<\/p>\n

Brick\u2019s birth rate was one of the lowest in Ocean County and lower than the state average, the study said. Between the 2006-07 school year and the start of the 2015-16 school year, the student population declined by 1,967 students, an 18 percent drop. Over the same time period, the district\u2019s youngest students, those in preschool to fifth grade, dropped by 722.\u00a0During the current\u00a0school year, the district will educate 8,746 students, down from 10,714 in 2006-07.<\/p>\n

Brick\u2019s birth rates were analogous to many of New Jersey\u2019s suburbs outside of commuting distance to New York or Philadelphia, plagued by highest-in-the-nation taxes with few opportunities to produce sufficient income.\u00a0From 2000 to 2010, Brick lost more females in the 35 to 39 year-old age group, at the same time mothers were beginning to have children in their mid-to-late 30s instead of earlier in life, the study said.<\/p>\n

As it pertains to school attendance, Grip\u2019s study effective predicts a plateau. Eventually, the smaller elementary school populations will reach high school, and kindergarten replacement metrics will essentially even out. The study predicted school population between now and the 2020-21 school year. Another 521 students would be lost during that period, after which the population will begin to stabilize.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn the final year of the projection period, positive kindergarten replacement of six students is projection,\u201d Grip wrote.<\/p>\n

The 46-page study also looked at school-by-school population, finding that Brick Township Memorial High School would suffer the largest drop \u2013 234 students \u2013 while Emma Havens Young Elementary School and Lake Riviera Middle School would follow with drops of 143 and 130 students, respectively.<\/p>\n

Ultimately, by the end of the study period \u2013 the 2020-21 school year, \u2013 the district will have a smaller population than the current school year. The total number of students is forecast to be 8,225 that year.<\/p>\n

District officials have rarely commented on the study, besides acknowledging its existence. Board President John Lamela told Shorebeat after a recent Board of Education meeting that the district would form a Demographic Committee. To date, however, that committee has not met.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019re looking at it\u00a0based on school population,\u201d he said, adding board members had not yet been brief on the report by Interim Superintendent Thomas Gialanella.<\/p>\n

Read the Report:<\/strong><\/p>\n