Major Coastal Storm Could Affect N.J. Sunday-Monday, Flood and High Wind Watches in Effect

Forecast wind gusts by Sunday, Oct. 12 at 5 p.m. (Credit: NWS)

A coastal storm has the potential to bring major tidal flooding, heavy surf and tropical storm force winds to the Shore area this Sunday and Monday, with forecasters already urging homeowners to prepare for a storm surge.

The National Weather Service has issued a coastal flood watch from 10 a.m. Sunday through 8 p.m. Monday, and a high wind watch from 11 a.m. Sunday to 2 a.m. Monday. The flood watch calls for a potential of 2 to 3 feet of inundation above ground level near shorelines and tidal waterways. This is beyond what is often seen during typical fall nor’easters.

“At this level, flooding may become severe enough to cause structural damage along with widespread roadway flooding in coastal and bayside communities, and near inland tidal waterways,” the NWS said in a statement. “Some locations may become isolated by the flood waters.”

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The NWS called for a “strong coastal storm that will impact the region Sunday through Monday.” Moderate to potentially major coastal flood impacts are possible, significant beach erosion is possible, and property owners “should remain alert for forecast updates regarding this potentially significant coastal flood event.”

Winds will also be a factor, with sustained northeast winds of 30 to 40 m.p.h. expected with gusts up to 60 m.p.h. possible. The winds will be at their highest speeds between Sunday morning and Sunday night, and begin to subside as the system moves out Monday. Offshore, some forecaster models were predicting seas eclipsing 25 feet, though the NWS forecast formally called for 14-19 foot seas offshore. Closer to the beach, wave heights were likely to be measured in the teens. The northeast winds and large swells are likely to trap water in the back bays starting early Sunday, with coastal flooding building at each high tide cycle until the storm moves out and water is able to drain back into the Atlantic Ocean.

Rainfall totals are dependent on the storm’s track, however the NWS is calling for a half-inch of rain to fall Saturday night, an additional 1-2 inches on Sunday, and another half-inch to an inch on Monday.